Manchester City vs Crystal Palace: The Eagles to Shock The Citizens in their own backyard

Gameweek 32 in the Premier League likely to see the Eagles continue their amazing performances at the expense of Manchester City

Historical output may be shaping the mindsets in this fixture, as the predictive model puts Manchester City as standout favourites in this game with a 64% chance of a home victory. But data and form seems to not back this up.

Eagles In Form

The home side need to be worried as Crystal Palace are the in-form team in 2025. The Eagles have earned the second most points over their last 10 Premier League game, only Liverpool have scored more. Adding to this the travelling side have won six of their last eight away from home.

Since Gameweek 26 in the Premier League the Palace team have been solid in defence and attack. The team have been very attacking averaging 1.97xG per 90 and scoring 2 goals per 90 in that time. Adding to this they have been tight at the back with 2 clean sheets and 3 goals conceded in total

City No Longer Formidable

Manchester City, on the other hand, have been in and out of form. In their last 6 games, despite keeping 3 clean sheets, the team have conceded 5 goals. Overall this season their defence has been fragile, even at home where they have conceded 19 goals and have only 4 clean sheets from 15 games.

Also, they only have 2 wins from their last 6 Premier League matches, with defeats to Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, plus poor performances that led to draws in matches against Brighton and Manchester United.

The Manchester Derby also showed the lack of impetus the side have going forward. Pep Guardiola has shaped his side around the strengths of Erling Haaland and thus far the team have not been able to respond to his injury and come up with new tactics. 3 of their most recent 6 games have seen them fail to score.

Conclusion

The loss of Marc Guehi to suspension will affect the rigidity at the back of Crystal Palace, but the consensus with the Numbers Game team is that the travelling Eagles will beat the odds. This is not a total agreement though, as Sam still sees a City win citing the tactical mismatch between the sides. His belief is that the recent upturn in form is against lesser sides, whereas Manchester City are a real test for Crystal Palace.  The travelling side have improved attacking performances, but this has increased vulnerability at the back and “trying to go toe to toe rarely works” against the Citizens.

Picks

Sam:- Over 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, Manchester City win

Olly:- Crystal Palace Double Chance and Marmoush Shot On Target (He averages nearly 2 per game since Haaland has been out)

Jason:- Crystal Palace Double Chance, Marmoush and Mateta Shot On Target