Champions League Quarter Final Leg 2 Preview
There is still all to play for in the second leg of the Champions League Quarter-Finals. Only Barcelona can be certain of their progress, whereas all the others matches could serve up surprises and entertainment.
Aston Villa (1)-(3) PSG
This game is certainly not over and the Villains have a chance of going through, especially with this second leg at home. But the chances are slim with just an 8.5% chance of qualification.
Aston Villa are a different beast at home and PSG should be aware of this, with the side only having lost once at Villa Park in the league this season.
The home side also have the capability to capitalise on PSG’s “dominance” of the game, as we saw in the first leg. Unai Emery is able to tweak his tactics to the strengths of his opponents and he will be happy to sit off. Aston Villa gave up the ball, only having 26.4% of possession. But Rogers' goal at the half hour mark showed their strength and ability to use their counter attack to stun their opponent.
With 13% of their passes being long balls in the first leg in France you can see how Unai Emery was looking to play this game against his old side. The only difference may be in front of the Villa Park crowd. With a two goal deficit to overturn and the roar of their own fans they may play more positively. This is also their biggest game for since their FA Cup Final appearance in 2015.
Another positive for the home team is that despite PSG being dominant with the higher expected goals, these numbers flattered to deceive. Their 1.94xG came from a whopping 29 shots. Only 10 of these were on target. This shows that a lot of their opportunities were speculative and their shot quality was actually poor.
We saw the wonder goal from Kvaratskhelia, 0.05xG, and a Desire Doue goal that had 0.07xG to get the Parisians ahead, but the numbers show these were low in quality.
Unai Emery has also seemingly planned the peak of the team well, with the side having 11 wins in their last 16 games, and before the loss to PSG had been on a winning streak of 7 games in all competitions.
Stating all this, PSG are the team projected to go through. And the side are consistently dominating teams in Europe with this being the fifth time they have had 20+ more shots than opponents. Adding to this, having already won the league the side can rotate, but the Parisians also had no game this weekend and thus will be well rested whereas Aston Villa continue to battle an incredibly hectic fixture schedule.
Both teams to score looks very likely, with the data having it at 65% likelihood, and even over 2.5 goals have a 66% likelihood.
The smartest bet might be on “to qualify” as Aston Villa will have the fight in them and may level the match in normal time, “winning the game”, but not the tie.
Dortmund (0)-(4) Barcelona
There is not much to say about this fixture from Dortmund's point of view. The result seems a dead certain for the travelling Barcelona team and the question is more about how big of a margin will they win by.
Barcelona have scored 146 goals in 49 games across all competitions and tomorrow nights game is likely to see even more. The Catalan giants also have not lost any of their 23 games across all competitions so far in 2025. They seem to have rediscovered the lost magical spark of seasons gone by.
The fact that this match is on the road should not cause any issues for the rampant Barca side. They have just 2 losses in all competitions away this season, showing that whatever the venue they continue to be a formidable outfit.
It is a toss up of who will be involved in the goals. Winger Raphinha is on incredible form. He is gunning for the record goal involvements in a Champions League season, with his tally of 19 thus far being only 2 being Cristiano Ronaldo’s tally from 2013/14 season.
But Robert Lewandowski could also be on the scoresheet. It seems an inevitability that he will rub salt into their wounds each time he comes up against his old club as he now has 29 goals in 28 matches against them.
Real Madrid (0)-(3) Arsenal
For those predicting an overturn in this fixture: Arsenal has not conceded 3 or more goals in a game since Luton away on December 5, 2023.
The Gunners have rightly given up on the league and so most of the stars were rested for the game against Brentford at the weekend. Real Madrid, on the other hand, have an outside chance of winning the league with the team being just 4 points behind arch rivals Barcelona and 7 games to go.
Gunners must be regarded as two teams. Champions League Arsenal and league Arsenal. The team playing in the league are really limping over the line, making some real dire watching for the fans. But the Champions League outfit is humming.
Although there were standout performances from players like Rice and Lewis Skelly, the 3-0 win was a team performance and the same should be expected at the Bernebau. Madrid have to come to come at Arsenal, and an overhaul of the 3 goals is incredibly unlikely for such a formidable defence.
One of the problems for Arsenal this season is that they have arguably been too defensive. It has stifled the attack in many games, but it may be a consequence of necessity. Injuries have robbed the side of talents across the board, and so Mikel Arteta has seen to it that the side do not lose matches.
This has seen the team conceded only 6 goals in the Champions League this season, with 6 clean sheets including huge stop outs against PSG, Atalanta and Real Madrid. There will be more of the same as Arsenal take a low risk approach.
Arteta will also be well aware that goals can change the psychology of the tie to the Real Madrid team that seems to always overturn deficits and surprise opponents. But this game will see few goals. Arsenal may even concede no goals again.
Inter (2)-(1) Bayern
This is the game with the most scope for goals and changes in who goes through. The match is finely poised with just 1 goals separating the teams and the xG data of the last tie shows that Inter were somewhat lucky to win the match.
Harry Kane was unusually inaccurate in the match, with his late on opportunity having a big 0.33xG. Bayern had plenty of good chances looking at their xG heatmap and so the quality is there, they just couldn’t finish.
The issue is will they be able to conjure up more chances in Milan? Inter have been incredibly consistent this season and are unbeaten in 11 games coming into this match. They are one of the best defences in Serie A with 12 clean sheets, only 31 goals conceded and the second best xGA data as well.
But Bayern have real talent up top and they showed this in the first leg. Michael Olise was a creative force, as usual, and Harry Kane is arguably the best striker in the world with abilities to both create and score. In the first half of the match Bayern managed 4 shots on target, the second most Inter have concede in a first half all season. They were dominant at times.
However, this played into Inter’s hands as they kept their composure and took the opportunities. Their lightning quick counters caught Bayern off guard. The first goal from Martinez was against the run of play, but perfectly executed by Inter. Thuram’s pass back and then outside of the boot from Martinez was class.
The second goal was an indication of how desperate Bayern had got. The Bavarians had over committed and allowed Inter to cut them open.
There are arguments for an against both teams. The projected data also finds this one hard to call, with the Numbers Game AI prediction having it evens for who will win the match.
It may be better to focus on betting that includes player fouls, like Konrad Laimer and Alessandro Bastoni, plus Harry Kane to have a shot on target.
