Numbers Game Helps You Make Better Value Bets
Numbers Game helps you make better value bets by using machine learning algorithms to generate predictions for football matches based on the underlying data, and providing you with two sets of odds, so you can spot good value-for-odds bets offered by the bookmakers in comparison to what we think are fair odds.
Background
One could be forgiven for assuming that the final goal of Numbers Game is to continue to improve our predicition models until every game is a forgone conclusion as soon as the fixtures are announced.
Although we do continually strive to improve the accuracy of our models, we are aware that a huge factor in the success of the beautiful game is unpredictability - the upsets, the highs and the lows, the drama.
When perceived in this way, it should be observed that good betting is not simply about being able to pick the winners every week. Good betting is betting in a way that allows you to succeed in the long term.
Therefore, the purpose of Numbers Game is to be used as a tool. We give you the data, push you in the right direction and inform your decision making, but ultimately you make the call.
Value Betting
Bookmakers hedge their bets to ensure the house always wins by changing their odds depending on the popularity of a bet. The more people that bet on England to win a given match, the more the bookmakers will reduce the odds. ‘Normal’ punters bet on emotion and hunches, which are inevitably reflected in the bookmakers odds (e.g. you will always get better odds for England to win an important match on the days prior to kickoff).
Our fair odds are calculated using the value of our predictions for a given outcome. They are not influenced by anything else.
Armed with this knowledge, the skilled gambler can pick bets where the bookmaker offer odds that are better than the real likelihood of an outcome (the fair odds).
We call this Value Betting and we highlight Value Bets green.
pictured: an example of a value bet
Numbers Game Bookies DataHovering over the odds shows which bookies offer good value
Value Betting allows a strategic (long term) gambler to build an edge on the bookmaker, by only making bets where the reward statistically outweighs the risk.
You will always lose bets, but the purpose of employing a strategy is to ensure the wins outweigh (but not necassarily outnumber) the losses, and we at Numbers Game believe that Value Betting is a great way to achieve this.
