FA Cup Quarter Finals Preview: Shocks Upcoming?
The weekend sees the 144th instalment of the FA Cup Quarter Finals with 4 games that are bringing excitement to football fans.
Instead of previous years where the latter stages have been dominated by the same number of teams, outside of Manchester City still being in the cup, there is a high likelihood that we could see a "new" winner.
4 of the teams in the Quarter Finals have never lifted the trophy, that being Brighton, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, whereas Preston last won it in 1938, Aston Villa in 1957 and Nottingham Forest in 1959. So, if the Sky Blues are knocked out we could be in for a real treat for one of the remaining teams.
Pep Guardiola's team remain favourites to lift the cup at the end of the campaign, but league results have shown that they are not as reliant as in previous years and that each of the other 7 sides can be confident in disturbing the top teams domination of this trophy.
It means that there is a good chance we experience the true "magic of the cup" that has seen outsiders like Portsmouth and Wigan win against all odds and cement their names in footballing folklore.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
A London derby starts off the round of fixtures with Fulham hosting Crystal Palace at Craven Cottage.
Fulham come into the match with patchy form in their last 5 games in all competitions. They have kept just one clean sheet in this run as they have won two, lost two and drawn one.
A positive coming into this game is that despite midtable xG they have been on target and overperformed their attacking data in their last 6 PL games.
Muniz, Andreas, Adama, Jiminez and Sessegnon are all matched for 2 goal involvements during this run. Jiminez has had good presence with 11 shots in the box in this time frame, showing his goal threat and return to form.
Eagles Flying?
Crystal palace are coming into this match in fantastic form, with Oliver Glasner’s style maybe now being fully implemented onto the team. They are on a 4 game winning run in all competitions, with only 2 losses in their last 13 games, and 10 wins.
Adding to this the Eagles recently beat Fulham comfortably in the league 2-0, with Fulham not even having a shot on target during the match.
Also, during their recent run they have almost topped the table for attacking data. In their last 5 PL games they sit only behind Liverpool for xG, but have not been clinical with only 10 goals from a 12.66xG. This has been couple with a strong backline that has conceded only 3 times in these 5 matches and has kept 3 clean sheets.
Adding to this talismanic players Eze and Guehi both played well for England, with the midfielder scoring a fabulous goal.
But the injury news may affect this game the most, in a positive way for Crystal Palace. Jean-Phillipe Mateta could make a return to lead the line. If he does pass the fitness tests after his ear injury he will be sporting a protective mask.
Conclusion
Fulham are likely to put their attention elsewhere for this game. Two days after this game they take on Arsenal, and in the longer term the Cottagers will be hoping to secure a European spot in the Premier League. Marco Silva will likely have to manage his squad to ensure that the priority of qualification for continental football is achieved without being compromised by a physically demanding FA Cup run.
This means that the pick for this game by the whole Numbers Game team is a Crystal Palace win.
Olly: Under 4 goals
Sam: Palace to win to nil
***Jason:***Palace to win to nil
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest
Football fans have been in awe of the heroic performances of Nottingham Forest this season with the side looking to make it into the Champions League. Brighton will also be looking to secure European places and so this could play an influence in the game.
This is also the first ever FA Cup meeting between the two teams, but Brighton have more of the recent FA Cup pedigree. Nottingham Forest have lost their last two Quarter Finals, whereas Brighton have won both of theirs.
Forest Defined By Wood
Forrest come into this game as the Premier Leagues top scorers since Gameweek 24 in the competition. They have the most goals, exceeding that of even Liverpool, despite playing one less game than the Reds.
However, this surface level data needs some scrutiny. First of all, almost half of this goal output came in their massive win against Brighton.
Also, their goalscoring has been coupled with a massive overperformance on their xG, doubling their 8.37xG to score 16 in 6 games. Adding to this other attacking data has been bottom half of the table, with only 43 shots in the box during this run.
The main worry for the side will be Chris Wood’s absence. The forward looks set to miss this showdown as Nuno Espirito Santo confirmed the extent of the injury. The manager stated that:
"We are still waiting. He has been to a specialist for a scan. We will wait on the information and see. He will not be available for this game"
This would be a huge blow for the side and there will be a loss in their goalscoring abilities.
Arguably this has come at a bad time as they have lost a little bit of steam from their early season incredible run. In their last 5 they have 2 wins, 2 draws and one loss. But these have been games of fine margins.
Adding to this the side has been leaking goals. Their defensive stability has been lost in recent games. Despite keeping three clean sheets in their last 6 PL games, they have also conceded 8 times.
A Change Of Wind For Seagulls
Brighton come into this game having only lost recently 7-0 to Nottingham Forest. This embarrassing scoreline will no doubt have an affect on the psychology of the Seagulls. It may motivate them, as it seems to have with their recent form.
In fact, since the 7-0 loss the side have been unbeaten in all competitions, with 6 wins and 1 draw.
This has been coupled up with team having impressive attacking numbers with the third best xG in the Premier League in their last 6 games, since GW24, and have the joint third best output in this time with 13 goals.
Joao Pedro has shone in these games with 4 goal involvements, but others like Minteh, have impressed with goal involvements and creativity to help the side have great performances.
Although Brighton have a long list of injuries, many are to players that are not too important to the side. Also, their recent form has shown their ability to adapt to the circumstances.
Conclusion
Brighton have looked composed in the FA Cup this season, having eliminated both Chelsea and Newcastle, whereas Nottingham Forest have laboured through with draws against Ipswich and Exeter.
The Champions League race is likely to play an influential role as Nuno Espirito Santo will surely prioritise the side getting a top 4 spot, and the lucrative money that comes with it, over risking a lot for the FA Cup. Wood's absence will also hand an advantage to the home side and Brighton have come to form at the right time.
Forest will certainly look to manage the squad and keep all the key players safe for the final push of the season, whereas Brighton can have a more risky approach.
Everyone: Brighton win
Preston North End vs Aston Villa
Although the general consensus is that this will be an easy win for Aston Villa, we believe that Preston will make the Deepdale a tough place to play this weekend. There are signs that point to the fact that Aston Villa will not have it easy as they play away.
Not All Positive for Villa
First and foremost, the travelling side will be managing their squad for the run into the end of the season. The fixture schedule is incredibly busy for Aston Villa with games on Sunday, Tuesday and Saturday as they are looking to progress in the Champions League whilst also securing European football next season by being more consistent in the league.
Adding to this, Villa are not good on the road. Most of their points have been picked up at home this season as the side are 16th in Premier League table for away games. In these matches they have a -11 Goal Difference and have suffered 7 defeats, with only 5 wins from 14 matches away. According to xPoints data, this output should be even worse as they have "overperformed" in these matches by around 4 points, showing their fragility when not at home.
Also, talismanic striker Ollie Watkins might be out. He missed England duty due to an injury, but it is not confirmed if he is out yet as he returned to training this week. But manager Unai Emery will be having an eye on the important games ahead and caution may be exercised if Watkins is risked at all for the game.
Pressure on Preston
The reality is though that the depth of Villa's squad means they can rest and rotate without having too much of an issue to dispatch Preston.
Preston have also had a favourable run thus far with games against Charlton, Wycombe and Burnley. Their league run this season is more indicative of their quality.
The side sit midtable in the Championship with uninspiring performances and worrying data for hosting the Premier League outfit of Aston Villa. So far this campaign Preston have a -5GD and -0.04xGD per 90 showing that the side is not the strongest unit. Their home performances have also been poor throughout the campaign with Preston occupying 17th position for their output at the Deepdale and just 3 wins in front of their own fans.
Conclusion
This game does not require too much overthinking as Aston Villa will go through. But the manner in which may cause a surprise. It looks likely that Preston will want to keep it tight in front of their home fans, and avoid an embarrassment, so the game may go to extra time.
Olly: Villa to go through, Preston to score
Sam: Villa win
Jason: Draw in 90 mins
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
This is arguably the toughest game to call this weekend. Although Manchester City have been cup specialists in recent seasons, all bets are off in this game as Bournemouth are one of the standout teams this campaign whereas the Citizens have had a 2024/25 to forget.
Bournemouth Buoyant
Although Bournemouth's results have dipped in recent games, they still look in a good position to qualify for Europe and are just four points behind Manchester City in the league.
Since October the Cherries have taken on the biggest and the best in the Premier League and have come out on top on many occasions. The side have managed wins against Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United, plus an unfair looking draw with Chelsea show they are not to be frowned upon.
However, their recent poor form must be taken into account. Since Christmas the side are 12th for form in the Premier League table. They have been unable to match their xG, but their good defence has seen them continue to have positive Goal Difference and positive Expect Goal Difference too.
Injuries to their frontline has seen them suffer in front of goal, and so goes some way in explaining their underperformances on data.
Shockingly, Bournemouth have had the better defence of the two sides this season with the Cherries conceding 36 and Manchester City allowing 40 goals. This could be where the match is decided.
Never Underestimate Pep
Even with their poor form and leaky backline Pep Guardiola knows how to manage in the FA Cup. He has twice lifted the trophy, but he has also overseen a record run of six consecutive semi-final appearances in the FA Cup.
But the specialists made hard work of the match against Plymouth Argyle and will come into the match with a depleted squad. Rodri, Nathan Ake, John Stones and Manuel Akanji are all ruled out, whereas there are question marks over Ederson and Joski Gvardiol.
Plus, as mentioned, their defensive steeliness has left them this season and the Citizens have lost their untouchable aura that previously made them a side to be feared. Two wins in their last 6 games in all competitions, plus being out of the title race already and knocked out of the Champions League after a hairy league phase that only saw them squeeze through showcases their weaknesses.
Conclusion
The data suggests a Manchester City win, but also a close result with the data suggesting it is a tighter game than many expect. This is also reflected in our predictions.
Olly: Man City win
Sam: BTTS and City to qualify
Jason: Bournemouth win
